As of 21 Oct 2026 · PAGASA / Australia BoM · sample
Peaking before the end of 2026, easing through Q1 2027
PAGASA expects this strong to very strong El Niño to peak before the end of 2026, then persist into the first quarter of 2027. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has models peaking Nov–Dec 2026 and staying above El Niño thresholds into Southern Hemisphere autumn 2027 (roughly March–May).
Next few months
What PAGASA and Australia's BoM expect, period by period
Confidence: high for Nov–Dec, lower beyond Q1 2027
PAGASA and BoM agree on the Nov–Dec 2026 peak. Beyond Q1 2027, models vary on how quickly it eases ·
PAGASA, Australia BoM · updated 21 Oct 2026
What each agency says
Four forecasts, one picture
PAGASA
Strong to very strong El Niño, expected to peak before the end of 2026 and persist to Q1 2027.
Updated 21 Oct 2026 NOAA CPC
ONI at +2.4 °C — in the strong El Niño range.
As of 21 Oct 2026 · sample IRI Columbia
Niño 3.4 ocean warmth at +3.3 °C — above the +2.0 °C “very strong” line.
As of 21 Oct 2026 · sample Australia BoM
All models peak Nov–Dec 2026 and stay above El Niño thresholds into autumn 2027.
Updated 21 Oct 2026