As of 21 Oct 2026 (PAGASA)
El Niño is here and likely to peak before the end of 2026 Strong
PAGASA has the country on El Niño Advisory. A strong to very strong El Niño is present and expected to persist into the first quarter of 2027, peaking before the end of 2026.
The evidence
What's behind the call
PAGASA, NOAA, IRI Columbia and BoM each publish an index. They don't always match exactly — here's what each one says right now.
PAGASA alert level
Watch Alert Advisory ▲ Final
+3.3 °C
Niño 3.4 ocean warmth. Anything above +2.0 °C is in the “very strong” range.
As of 14 Oct 2026 · IRI Columbia
Niño 3.4 index, 2026 °C above normal · monthly · sample
Status badges used on this site: Normal Watch Alert Strong Normal → Watch → Alert → Strong, low to high concern
NOAA ONI (Jul–Sep)
+2.4 °C
Strong El Niño by NOAA's measure
NOAA CPC · 9 Oct 2026 Rainfall outlook, Nov–Jan
−40 to −80%
Below normal over most of Luzon
PAGASA · 21 Oct · sample Expected peak
Nov–Dec 2026
Effects linger into mid-2027
BoM · Oct 2026 Australia BoM (relative)
+2.88 °C
Relative Niño 3.4, above threshold
BoM · week ending 25 Oct 2026